Christopher Paul - Victory Has a Thousand Fathers, Książki USA, ebook, pdf

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Victory
Thousand
Fathers
Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency
Christopher Paul
•
Colin P. Clarke
•
Beth Grill
Prepared for the Ofﬁce of the Secretary of Defense
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Has a
The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the
Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND
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development center sponsored by OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified
Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps,
the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under
Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.
Library of Congress Control Number: 2010930813
ISBN: 978-0-8330-4961-2
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Cover photo: A U.S. marine stands in a doorway after searching one of the houses of
Saddam Hussein's family in Owja, Iraq, April 15, 2003. The village, which is just outside
Tikrit, was the former leader's birthplace. AP Photo/Kevin Frayer.
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Preface
is research grew out of the sponsor’s desire to be able to evidence
the historical contribution (or lack of contribution) of activities con-
cordant with what is now referred to as
strategic communication
to the
outcomes of counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns. e method that
the RAND Corporation proposed to answer this question—a com-
bination of historical case studies and the qualitative comparative
approach—was capable of answering a much broader set of questions
about the contributions of a wider range of approaches to COIN with
minimal additional eort. is research, then, reports on the dem-
onstrated eectiveness of a variety of approaches to COIN (including
strategic communication) through case studies of the world’s 30 most
recent resolved insurgencies.
is monograph describes the qualitative comparative approach,
presents ndings from the overall analyses, and explains the study’s case
selection and methodology. It also presents an overview and in-depth
assessments of the key approaches, practices, and factors that feature
prominently in successful COIN operations. A companion volume,
Victory Has a ousand Fathers: Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Stud-
ies
, includes detailed case histories for each of the COIN campaigns
examined in the analyses.
1
e full case data can be downloaded at
Detailed Counterinsurgency Case Studies
, Santa Monica, Calif.: R AND Corporation,
MG-964/1-OSD, 2010.
iii
iv Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency
is work will be of interest to defense analysts and military plan-
ners who are responsible for evaluating current U.S. operations and
COIN approaches; to academics and scholars who engage in historical
research of COIN, insurgency, and irregular warfare; and to students
of contemporary and historic international conicts.
is research was sponsored by the Oce of the Secretary of
Defense, Cost Analysis and Program Evaluation, Irregular Warfare
Division (OSD[CAPE]IW), and conducted within the International
Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense
Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center
sponsored by the Oce of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Sta,
the Unied Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the
defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.
For more information on R AND’s International Security and
Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can
be reached by email at
by phone at 703-
413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the RAND Corporation, 1200
South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More informa-
tion about RAND is available at
Contents
Preface
.............................................................................
iii
Figures
.............................................................................
ix
Tables
..............................................................................
xi
Summary
.........................................................................
xiii
Acknowledgments
............................................................
xxvii
Abbreviations
...................................................................
xxix
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
.......................................................................
1
Purpose of is Study
.............................................................
1
Data and Analyses
.................................................................
3
About is Monograph and the Accompanying Case Studies
...............
3
CHAPTER TWO
e Cases
...........................................................................
5
Case Selection and Data Collection
.............................................
5
Phased Data
.........................................................................
7
Assessing Case Outcomes
.........................................................
8
Nicaragua (Somoza), 1978–1979
..............................................
10
Afghanistan (Anti-Soviet), 1978–1992
.......................................
11
Kampuchea, 1978–1992
.......................................................
12
El Salvador, 1979–1992
........................................................
13
Somalia, 1980–1991
............................................................
13
Peru, 1980–1992
................................................................
14
Nicaragua (Contras), 1981–1990
..............................................
15
Senegal, 1982–2002
............................................................
15
v
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